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Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

From: noreply+feedproxy@google.com <tim@investools.com>
To: david.m.halsey@gmail.com
Received: Friday, May 29, 2009 01:38 PM
Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope with Tim Knight
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How High Could OIH Go?

Posted: 28 May 2009 05:53 PM PDT

Well, if we go into full-tilt bull mode, I'm simply going to augment my existing commodity and energy longs. Those are the sectors where I feel most comfortable in a bull suit. Taking a glance at crude oil (the entire history of the continuous contract that I've got available), here's what we see:

I have trouble seeing oil getting much past $75 or a skosh higher. But that's still $10 away. As for OIH, if it managed to get to $130, I'd make a dash for the glowing Exit sign.

I'm going to have another go at seeing Star Trek tonight. Good night, brothers and sisters!

The Merry Month of May

Posted: 28 May 2009 02:05 PM PDT

Truly, I hate for the theme of every blessed day to be Wow Isn't This Market Awful?, but that's pretty much what I've got to say. You know where the $NDX was a month ago? About 1420. Do you know where it is today? About 1420. We've spent the entire stinking month whipsawing everyone to pieces. Both bulls and bears alike are knee-deep in whipsaw dust.

And if you look at the /ES, you can see how - in the words of Elvis Costello - it seems to be "spluttering to a stop":

Will this thing just flatline at 900 for the rest of eternity and we can all just go home?

As I've mentioned (ad nausem), I've never worked so hard just to tread water. One more day of this lousy month left. I've had it with 5/2009! I think I'm done for today.

UNG!

Posted: 28 May 2009 01:09 PM PDT

Well, another day, another dollar. Literally (well, not quite but close). Another day where I felt like I was in the middle of an all-out war, and at one point I had huge profits, but by the end of the day, I have a small gain to show for all my trouble. Reallllllllly getting tired of this, powers-that-be.

Far and away the brighest shining spot was the natural gas ETF (UNG).

The great mystery, of course, is will this set folks that are long (like me) up like it did in that tinted section? In other words, is this a one-day wonder only to be following by the resumption of the grind downward? Or is a new bull market for UNG?

I'm holding on to my position, principally because the steady surge in volume over the past couple of months makes me think that - - dare I say it? - - it'll be different this time.

Anyway, today was exhausting. I'm going to stare at something besides charts for a while. I'll almost certainly be back later.

Oh, and if SRS were a person, I'd strangle it.

Help Wanted

Posted: 28 May 2009 12:13 PM PDT

Since I don't want to get buried in emails, I'm going to try to phrase this in as narrow a way as possible.......

I am moving from the current blogging platform I am using (of my own design) to Typepad. For probably no good reason, I'd like to port over 2009's content along with that move, and I need some fairly low-tech help doing so.

This really involves nothing more than:

  • Cutting/pasting the text
  • Moving the picture files over (a decent amount of computer experience will help here)
  • Glancing at the post to put any appropriate symbol or content tags in there

This is basically something a decently-sharp 14-year old with a good work ethic could handle. But I need it done over the next couple of weeks. And there are hundreds of posts, so it's pretty much a full time gig for a week or two.

If you know of someone (or if you yourself) would be interested in this, let me know. I'm going to pay for this out of my own pocket, so this isn't going to make anyone a lot of money, but it beats mowing lawns. The work is probably going to be pretty tedious, although an inate interest in the content will probably make it less grueling.

Sorry for the content-free post, but I need to get this done, so I thought I'd get the word out.

The Wonderful, Easy-to-Trade SRS

Posted: 28 May 2009 11:36 AM PDT

BGZ Interesting as a (Risky) Buy

Posted: 28 May 2009 10:51 AM PDT

The triple-bearish BGZ has an intriguing pattern. I bought some earlier today.

Is DBC Next to Breakout?

Posted: 28 May 2009 09:25 AM PDT

DBC is at an ominous point. This is by far my largest cash position (it's long). We are just at the cusp of where we are back on January 6th (which is where the market commenced its slide for the next two months). Do I take profits or wait for a breakout? Bleah! It's a handsome formation, I must say.

Energy Going Well

Posted: 28 May 2009 08:50 AM PDT

My newfound bullishness in energy ETFs is going nicely, especially with the one I was most enthused about yesterday, UNG.

I wish I had the same commitment to precious metals, but I just can't seem to hang on to them. I guess I'm more of a true believer in energy than precious metals. I'm finding it much easier to stay the course on the above items.

Great Moments in Web Ad Placement

Posted: 28 May 2009 08:00 AM PDT