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Forum: US Indices
Topic: $SPX
Posted By: hayseed
It is always tough to call the length of a B wave (or an X wave) because there are so many variations of corrections but once they are complete it becomes a little more mathematical toward solving for the length of the next series forming a C wave and also what shapes of corrections can be eliminated, thus narrowing the field for selection.
Of course, all this is in an effort for those so inclined to use the remaining shapes as possible targets in time and price distance end points for their own benefit.
This chart depicts the entire Primary degree wave 2 rally to date and I think the 8 May 2009 peak was the end of wave A (of an intermediate degree possibly.)
I do agree that the rally can be counted as a complete ABC and that this next sequence down (or it could be sideways) could be an X wave (quite possibly); or it could be the end of the Primary degree wave 2 (highly unlikely.)
I saw a fractal in the time range of about the second week and third week of April just before the 20 April 2009 selloff that could be the prototype of the corrective B or X wave that will be seen and that not much net movement up or down will be made while this occurs. Of course, that remains to be seen.
I will be difficult to trade in any direction for swings other than very short term trades spanning hours at a time if this ends up being the case.
In any case, the Primary degree wave 1 completed with a duration of 73 weeks and one can assume that if even the complement of PHI (38.2%) in time and distance as a minimal correction of that decline places the price level of $SPX near 1014 and about the middle of September.
Having said that, this initial wave up is minimally about 2 months, not long enough in time and not long enough in price distance to fully qualify as a complete correction. Hence, the dual statements of near term bearish and intermediate term bullish are equally valid.
This of course is against a back drop of an historical bear market that has only started.
